Confederation chief economist Stein Reegård fear that dichotomy in Norwegian industry will lead to increased wage inequality – which in time will create an economy like Saudi Arabia.
The mistress and servants at work.
Today let analysis firm Pöyry forward economic report “Norwegian economy”, such as addresses the dichotomy in the Norwegian industry.
The report describes how the major activity in the North Sea, particularly the supply industry earns good money, contributing to continued strong growth in wages. While struggling export industry, due to a strong dollar, high costs and enervating conditions internationally.
This dichotomy makes it difficult to gain support for the wage restraint that particular export industry is looking for, points Pöyry.
It can create trouble, says analyst:
“This one is in danger of experiencing is that cohesion on either the employee and / or employer to break up. Wage growth is in this case significantly higher than our forecasts, “writes Pöyry report.
Fears Saudi economy
LO is largely agrees with the analyst. Stein Reegård, which is LO’s chief economist, told Dagbladet that dichotomy in the short term has already turned into something as rare as a bargaining failure in an interim settlement: After the breakup of negotiations between LO and NHO Thursday of last week, it becomes clear that this year’s wage goes to mediation. It will take place after Easter.
This is the first time in 10 years LO and NHO must be national mediator for help in an interim settlement, where you really just need to negotiate to adjust wages in line with inflation and the economy.
– This year’s settlement is an illustration of the problem, which is behind this dichotomy, says Reegård to Dagbladet.
During this year’s bargaining NHO has been harsh that the vast majority will have zero dollars in general as well.
– If you want to keep the cooperation we have on wage formation we have today, and that is a huge advantage for businesses, it is important that it also be given central wage increases. With zero also the basis for the current national negotiations away, allowing for high local well and thus greater economic differences. When one gets a spread in wage growth continues Reegård.
Notifications more to the leaders
Also, according to research firm Pöyry hold it not to urge moderation in wage settlements, money from the North Sea will still find its way into the economy. If that happens outside the main proceedings, it could lead to economic differences, they warn.
“Strong economic growth coupled with moderate pay increases, implies either strong capital income or groups outside wage gets a far higher wage than those with mainly central wage increases. Also executive pay will then be able to grow a lot, “according to the new report.
– Some will still benefit from the economic growth. If you are worried about the cost to the Norwegian industry must regulate demand in the economy instead of pointing the finger at the social life, which had to negotiate the revenue that is actually there. You have to regulate the income, not distort income distribution, says Roger Bjørnstad, chief economist at Pöyry, to Dagbladet.
– Can get masters and servants
In the long term fear LO-Chief economy that dichotomy in the industry to create a Saudi Arabia-economy, with a salary nobility associated with a growing petroleum industry and a poorer servants held outside the oil party:
– In the old days there was talk about a Kuwait-economics, where it was feared inflation as a result of state oil spending. Now the more the danger that we have a self-oil economy, which can create large economic differences, says Reegård.
– One can say that the problem becomes more acute as a result of two mechanisms: size of the oil economy and immigration. The larger oil economy becomes, the greater the wage for part of the work associated with this. Meanwhile, strong immigration to drag down wages in service occupations standing outside.
He continues:
– If this happens, there will be a fundamental break with the Norwegian model. This will provide greater unfairness, and it will damage the economy. Regular wage distribution is actually efficiency enhancing. When avoids large groups going in low productivity jobs, as we know from the U.S.: People who put food in bags at supermarkets for example.
Also Pröyry warns dichotomy:
“Further constitute the strong immigration challenge. Norwegian working life develops in a twofold direction in which wages, wage and working conditions among many unskilled and low-paid service sector are under pressure, and where the highly educated and workers in more protected industries are experiencing increased demand and confidence. It may seem divisive at the Norwegian tradition of cooperation and put pressure on the Norwegian welfare model “, according to the new report.
Dagbladet has not been able to get comment from the NHO.
http://www.dagbladet.no/2013/03/27/nyheter/innrenriks/politikk/arbeidsliv/regjeringen/26410577/
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